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Liberty Politics

The Islamic Republic vs the US and Israel, on one map

Tap any ship, base, missile or defence to see what it is and what it means, then run your own round. Every unit is sourced and dated.

Where things stand

2026-10-31: The war that began on 28 February 2026 is unresolved. Its main phase stopped with a ceasefire on 8 April; the Islamabad Memorandum signed on 17 June collapsed on 7 and 8 July, and the US struck for 13 nights in July and again from 30 August to mid-September. Since then there have been no US or Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, but the US blockade of Iranian ports stays and the IRGC struck more than thirty ships around Hormuz in October, now also with mines. Trump had promised no attack before the 3 November midterms, which have now passed. US and Israeli plans for a short, intense campaign after the midterms were reported, Israel voted on 27 October, and Qatar was carrying messages. As of this 31 October reading, Polymarket gave a 50% chance of a US strike by 15 November.

How the simulator works

You set the round: how many missiles and drones the Islamic Republic fires a day and at what, what the US and Israel strike and with what, and how many interceptors each defence has. The model runs it 400 times, each time drawing the uncertain numbers from their published ranges. Each incoming missile meets the defence layers in order (upper tier first), each layer firing its doctrine of interceptors while its stock lasts, with a kill chance per shot from the system's reported record. Strikes on launchers cut the next day's salvo. The map plays the most typical run day by day; the score and the explanation come from all 400.

Every unit on the map, with its source

Carrier strike groups

US warships

Submarines

  • US attack and guided-missile submarines (positions not public) as of 2026-03-04 source 1 source 2
  • Virginia-class attack submarine (class) as of 2026-11-04 source 1
  • Ohio-class guided-missile submarine, SSGN (class) as of 2026-08-01 estimate source 1 source 2 source 3

Amphibious groups

  • USS Boxer (LHD-4) amphibious ready group with the 11th MEU as of 2026-11-02 source 1 source 2 source 3
  • USS Portland (LPD-27), amphibious transport dock as of 2026-11-02 source 1 source 2
  • USS Comstock (LSD-45), dock landing ship as of 2026-11-02 source 1 source 2
  • USS Makin Island (LHD-8) amphibious ready group with the 13th MEU (en route) as of 2026-10-30 source 1 source 2 source 3
  • USS Anchorage (LPD-23), amphibious transport dock as of 2026-10-26 source 1 source 2
  • USS John P. Murtha (LPD-26), amphibious transport dock as of 2026-10-26 source 1 source 2
  • Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, LHD (class) as of 2026-11-02 source 1
  • San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock, LPD (class) as of 2026-11-02 source 1

Bases

Aircraft

Missile defence

Missiles and drones

Launchers

Missile cities

Regime air defence

Regime navy

Proxies

Nuclear sites

Oil and gas

Chokepoints

The simulator's numbers and where they come from

Each number the simulator uses, with its sources. "Estimate" means the sources disagree or only give a range; the simulator draws from that range on every run.

  • Ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic can still fire 1,500 (500 to 3,000) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Working mobile launchers 320 (150 to 450) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • One-way attack drones 3,000 (1,000 to 6,000) estimatesource 1 source 2
  • Most missiles it fired in one day 200 (40 to 480) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Share of its air defence still working 20% (5% to 50%) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Share of missiles stopped while interceptors last 90% (75% to 97%) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Chance its enriched uranium survives a strike 75% (30% to 95%) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Chance it tries to close Hormuz 90% (50% to 1) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • How hard its allies join 60% (20% to 95%) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • How well the regime holds together 80% (40% to 95%) estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Chance it hits Persian Gulf oil or bases 90% (50% to 1) estimatesource 1 source 2
  • Israeli strike sorties a day 150 (20 to 250) estimatesource 1 source 2
  • IRGC Navy fast boats 500 (400 to 600) boats estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Sea mines 800 (400 to 1,500) mines estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • Missile-base tunnel entrances struck in 2026 (of 107 imaged) 77% from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Blocked entrances reopened by the end of May 2026 50 entrances from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Days it took to choose a new Supreme Leader in 2026 9 days from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • Chance the regime falls before 2027 (betting markets) 5.5% from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • Iranians glad the regime was weakened (GAMAAN poll, June 2026) 60% from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Grid capacity cut by the July 2026 strikes 4,200 MW from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Highest oil price of the 2026 war (Brent) $70 to $126 estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Share of Qatar's gas exports lost to the 2026 strikes on Ras Laffan 17% from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Attacks on ships around Hormuz, October 2026 20 to 28 attacks estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Tomahawk range 1,600 km from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • One Tomahawk $2.0 million ($1.8 million to $2.5 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Share of the US Tomahawk stock used by August 2026 45% (40% to 50%) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Tomahawks fired in the 2026 war, to the ceasefire 1,000 to 1,100 missiles estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Missile cells on a newer US destroyer 96 cells from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Tomahawks on an Ohio-class submarine 154 missiles from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • JASSM-ER range 800 km from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • One JASSM-ER $1.7 million ($1.0 million to $2.0 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • JASSM-ERs a B-1B carries 24 missiles from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • GBU-57 bunker busters dropped in June 2025 14 bombs from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • How deep a GBU-57 reaches 18 to 60 m estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • GBU-57s ever delivered (the stock now is secret) 20 bombs from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • B-2 bombers, the only plane that carries it 19 to 20 aircraft estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • How deep the halls of Pickaxe Mountain lie 80 to 100 m estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain 4 portals from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Sorties a carrier can fly a day 120 to 160 sorties/day estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Strike fighters on a carrier 44 aircraft from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • US Air Force F-35As in the region (2026) 30 aircraft from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • One THAAD interceptor $12.8 million ($12.7 million to $14.0 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Interceptors in a THAAD battery 48 interceptors from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • THAAD interceptors the US had left (all of them, worldwide) 256 (90 to 278) interceptors estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • One Patriot PAC-3 MSE $3.9 million to $6.0 million estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Patriot interceptors the US had left (worldwide) 793 (759 to 827) interceptors estimatesource 1 source 2
  • Patriots fired at each ballistic missile 2 (1 to 4) interceptors per target estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • One SM-3 Block IIA $28.7 million ($26.0 million to $31.0 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • SM-3s fired in 2026 130 to 250 interceptors estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • One SM-6 $5.5 million to $8.0 million estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • One Arrow 3 $2.0 million ($650,000 to $4.0 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Share of Israel's Arrow stock used by late March 2026 (RUSI) 81.3% source 1 source 2
  • One David's Sling interceptor $1.0 million ($320,000 to $2.0 million) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • One Iron Dome interceptor $50,000 ($40,000 to $150,000) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Interceptors in an Iron Dome battery 60 to 80 interceptors estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Share of US interceptors used in the 2026 war (CBO) 58% (50% to 66.7%) estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Ballistic missiles fired at Israel in 2026 650 missiles from search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1 source 2
  • Of them, got through 66 missiles source 1 source 2
  • Drones the UAE intercepted in 2026 (of 1,422) 1,342 drones intercepted estimatefrom search summaries, rechecked monthlysource 1
  • One day of US war with the Islamic Republic $675.0 million ($450.0 million to $900.0 million) a day estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • One day of Israeli war with the Islamic Republic $420.0 million ($240.0 million to $600.0 million) a day estimatesource 1 source 2 source 3
  • Of the dead in Iran, the share who are civilians 52.5% (45% to 60%) estimatesource 1 source 2
My own judgements in the model

Where no source gives a number, the model uses these. Each is an estimate, and each says why.

  • Share of a destroyer's cells loaded with Tomahawks (the rest interceptors) estimate

    No public source gives a destroyer's load. This is my starting guess; you set it in the plan.

  • Targets one carrier can hit a day estimate

    About 120 sorties a day (the low end of the Navy planning range), under half of them strike missions, two weapons each.

  • Targets US land-based jets can hit a day estimate

    About 30 F-35As, F-15Es and F-22s were in the region in 2026; about 70 aim points a day if the host countries allow it.

  • Targets one Israeli sortie hits estimate

    Two precision weapons per jet, as in its published strikes.

  • Aim points it takes to wreck each target set estimate

    From the counts in the register: 25 missile bases with 107 tunnel entrances plus about 320 launchers; 8 big refineries; 9 big power plants and their substations; about 500 boats and their piers. The launcher number is set so that strikes at 2026 strength (two carriers, Persian Gulf jets and Israel all in) cut its launches about 92% in about 11 days, as happened. A rough scale, not a target list.

  • How much watching the launchers from the air cuts launches estimate

    In 2026 the launch rate fell 92% in about 11 days, mostly because launchers were watched from the air, not destroyed (the register's history). Here it grows with the share of the launcher set you hit.

  • Drones fired for each missile estimate

    On 28 February 2026 it fired about 480 missiles and 720 drones.

  • Share of drones shot down estimate

    The UAE shot down 1,342 of 1,422 in 2026; fighters and guns do most of it, so no stock runs out.

  • Share stopped once the right interceptors run out estimate

    In June 2025 the share getting through rose from 8% to 25% as stocks fell. With a layer empty, older systems and fighters still stop some. My estimate.

  • Arrow interceptors Israel has (secret) estimate

    Nobody publishes it. RUSI thought 81% was used by late March 2026 and production was sped up in April. My guess, with a wide range.

  • David's Sling interceptors (secret) estimate

    Nobody publishes it. My guess.

  • The Persian Gulf states' own THAAD interceptors estimate

    Three batteries (UAE 2, Saudi 1) of 48 each, if full. Their own Patriots are not counted: no number is public.

  • People killed in Israel per missile that gets through estimate

    26 killed by 66 missiles that got through in 2026, most with cluster warheads.

  • People killed at Persian Gulf bases and cities per missile that gets through estimate

    23 US service members and about 75 people in the Persian Gulf states were killed in 2026; how many missiles got through there is not public. My estimate.

  • People killed in Iran per day of full strikes estimate

    3,375 (WHO and OCHA) to 7,650 (Hengaw) in the 40 days of 2026, with the US and Israel both striking: about 85 to 190 a day.

  • What GBU-57s do to Pickaxe Mountain estimate

    Its halls lie 80 to 100 m down; a GBU-57 reaches about 60 m of earth. So bombs can close its 4 entrances (about four bombs for a good chance) but rarely reach the halls (1 in 10 with eight or more). Analysts say the same.

  • Chance a commando raid seizes the enriched uranium estimate

    Its location is unknown or under rubble (the register). A raid needs to find it, hold the site and dig. My estimate; markets give 17.5% for US forces taking any part of Iran before 2027.

  • Days to wait for the third carrier estimate

    USS Theodore Roosevelt can reach the region in about 14 to 21 days.

  • Launchers it repairs per week of waiting estimate

    It went from about half its launchers in April to about 400 in October 2026: roughly 2 to 3% a week. While it sees an attack coming, more. My estimate.

  • Land-based strikes the host countries allow if their oil is left undefended estimate

    Saudi consent to use its airspace was tied to Patriot cover for its energy sites in 2026 (the register's audit). My estimate of how much is lost without it.

  • How each choice moves the chance the regime cracks estimate

    Starts from the 5.5% betting markets give for a fall before 2027. Hitting the Basij, the IRGC's Tehran command and the police helps people in the street most (x1.8 at full strength). Killing IRGC chiefs helps a little (x1.25): in 2026 every post was refilled and a new leader was chosen in 9 days. Hitting Artesh commanders hurts (x0.7): the regular army is the force most likely to stand aside, and attacking it pushes it to the regime. Killing politicians barely moves it (x1.1) and leaves nobody to sign a ceasefire. Cutting power to homes hurts (x0.55): blackouts land on ordinary Iranians, who in June 2026 were mostly glad the regime was weakened (GAMAAN, 60%); no poll has measured the blackout effect, so this is my judgement. Fuel and refineries hurt less (x0.85). Getting the internet to Iranians helps (x1.25). Capped at 35%: nothing here is certain.

  • Chance of a deal that ends it estimate

    Polymarket gave 14% for a final nuclear deal by 31 December. Here it moves from about 10% to 18% with how hard its missiles and nuclear sites are hit, and halves if the politicians who would sign it are killed.

  • Oil-price scale estimate

    Measured against 2026, when a closed strait and hits on Ras Laffan and Ras Tanura took Brent to $126.41. The page says calm, up or spike, not a price.

  • US commandos killed in a raid estimate

    My estimate for a raid deep inside a defended country: from a few to a few dozen. No raid like it has a public record to measure against.

  • Missiles through to Persian Gulf oil that make a big hit estimate

    In 2026 a handful of missiles and drones on Ras Laffan cost Qatar 17% of its gas exports for 3 to 5 years. Three or more getting through counts as a big hit here.

  • Share of a destroyer's interceptors kept to defend the ship itself estimate

    A destroyer keeps SM-2s and some SM-6s for its own defence; the rest (SM-3, SM-6) can cover Israel or the Persian Gulf. My estimate.

  • Days Hormuz stays shut after the fighting, while mines are cleared estimate

    Clearing mines takes weeks. In 2026 the strait was closed in March, again in June and July, and US officials said over 90% of the mines were later destroyed. Hitting the IRGC navy early shortens it. My estimate.

  • SM-3s the Navy can spare for this estimate

    130 to 250 of about 410 were fired in 2026 and the rest are spread worldwide; each costs about $28.7 million (Block IIA). The other cells carry SM-6s. My estimate.

  • Share of ballistic missiles the shield can engage at all estimate

    Some missiles are never engaged: warheads that split or tumble, decoys, launches tracked too late, a battery reloading during a big wave. No source gives this share. It is set so that the model, given the 2026 war's own salvo against Israel, lets through about what got through then: about 650 ballistic missiles fired at Israel and 66 through, about 10 percent (research-interceptors.json israel_bm_2026, israel_bm_leak_2026), and about 8 percent in June 2025 (leak_jun2025).

  • Chance one interceptor kills a ballistic missile, where a system has no published record estimate

    Kill rates per shot are classified. Where a defence system's card gives no sourced estimate, the model uses this. With two shots per missile, as US doctrine fires (research-interceptors.json pac3_doctrine), it gives about a 94 percent chance per layer, in line with the roughly 90 percent overall intercept rate reported for 2026 (jinsa_intercept_2026) once the share never engaged is counted.

  • SM-6 interceptors the Navy's ships in the region can spare for this estimate

    The Navy held about 1,160 SM-6 before the 2026 war and fired about 280 in it (research-interceptors.json sm6_stock_prewar_2026, sm6_used_2026); the ships in the region carry only part of that and keep some to defend themselves (ship_share). A guess at what the region's destroyers could commit.

  • Patriot interceptors at the Persian Gulf bases estimate

    About 793 PAC-3 were left in the whole US stock by mid-2026 (research-interceptors.json patriot_left_mid2026), spread over Europe, Asia and the Persian Gulf, plus the Persian Gulf states' own. A guess at the share at the Persian Gulf bases.

  • Salvo on later days, against the first day estimate

    In June 2025 and in 2026 the Islamic Republic fired its biggest salvos in the first days and far fewer after, as launchers were hunted and crews hid. The model fires the chosen salvo on day one and this share of it each day after, before strikes on the launchers cut it further.

  • Patriot interceptors the Persian Gulf states hold for their own oil and cities estimate

    No Persian Gulf state publishes its stock. In 2026 the Persian Gulf states are reported to have fired about 2,400 Patriots at about 1,200 missiles (the Patriot PAC-3 card in this tool, with its sources), so they held at least that many before the war and replenished slowly after. A guess at what is left for a new round.

A simulation to think with, not a prediction. Data as of 4 Nov 2026. Positions are the last ones publicly reported, never live tracking: warships move and hide where they are. Map: Natural Earth.

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